{"id":11101,"date":"2020-05-26T12:10:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-26T10:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/test.adrem.ro\/the-need-for-certainty-and-economics\/"},"modified":"2026-09-10T13:48:02","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T11:48:02","slug":"the-need-for-certainty-and-economics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/adremengineering.ro\/en\/the-need-for-certainty-and-economics\/","title":{"rendered":"The need for certainty and economics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Article published on www.forbes.ro<\/a><\/p>\n\n

Contributor: Corneliu Bodea<\/p>\n\n

I read and listen to podcasts about the impact of the COVID19 health crisis on the economy for 30-40 days, at least 2 hours a day and I hope it doesn’t turn into an obsession…<\/p>\n\n

Rather, it has to do with the curious way in which I am used to looking at the world and the lack of precedent in such a situation. Of course, the Spanish flu was a similar event, good to consider, but there are two reasons that detract from its relevance: the fact that the accuracy of the recordings is affected by the 100 years that have passed since the event and the fact that the global economy today has completely different springs and interdependencies. <\/p>\n\n

A crisis that affects the health system so abruptly \u2013 that suddenly and fundamentally hits the generation of value and product in the economy, that stimulates deep fears on a personal level, that throws people into a forced state of introspection and that erodes the way we conceive of work and social relationships \u2013 is such an original and profound crisis, that you don’t even know if you have reason to be glad to have the chance to experience something like this or to think that you were born in the wrong century.<\/p>\n\n

Jealous of sociologists and anthropologists because they have the chance to study something like this, I limit myself to my condition as an entrepreneur and try to understand the economic effects. Overcoming the hesitations of some in understanding that we are facing an unprecedented crisis from an economic point of view (and I refer to the strictly economic aspects of the crisis below), I am glad to see that the vast majority of people understand that things can no longer look good from this point of view. Evaluating the moments and depths of the blows that will come is important when you have the responsibility of thousands of jobs and you are weighed down by the need for strategic decisions and moves in such a situation. <\/p>\n\n

60 days have passed since the crisis in Romania and even more if we look at the global situation. I understand the shock and the initial lack of coherence of the authorities towards the economic perspective of the crisis initially generated by the sudden stop or slowdown of activities. I understand because having managed a company for over 25 years, I know that you could not be prepared for such a thing and that it is human to hesitate, deny, even make mistakes. Some over-reacted, others were decisive and quick in allocating economic support, others were careful and parsimonious, but most of them hesitated and delayed. I understand! From V-shaped returns to despair is a long way and somewhere in between there is the way to go. <\/p>\n\n

The global economy was already in a crisis… I would say old age, accumulated shortcomings and garbage under the rug. The recession was quietly settling in and consumption had begun to balance the insecurity. Then: boom! Pandemic! Tense world relations, the ongoing oil crisis, I would add the global problems of leadership and trust, did not help us to face this crisis in good shape, prepared materially and mentally. Of course, I expected solidarity and a focused response at the global level, coordination and help. Unfortunately, we have witnessed containment strategies, diverse and non-aligned response and additional turmoil. <\/p>\n\n

However, 90-60 days have passed, the surprise has passed, time has allowed us to organize, the experiences of others have proven their effects! Us? In the same state of misalignment and lack of support. The lack of clarity and certainty about economic measures seriously affects the economic environment in Romania and unfortunately there are no signs of improvement. <\/p>\n\n

In such a situation, what will determine the severity of the crisis is mostly related to consumer sentiment. The risk of exacerbating fears and the spiral of mistrust is what could turn the state’s support of any size into crumbs for pigeons. The deflation generated by the decrease in consumption will turn any state loan into something impossible to bear in the short and medium term. Mitigation methods? Communication based on clarity, authenticity and accompanied by facts. Empty words and legislative juggling do not use… <\/p>\n\n

The economy needs certainty! It may be bad, but there is nothing worse than a lack of perspective! Entrepreneurs and shareholders have a wide range of responses to a crisis, and uncertainty is something they know how to deal with, but it does not generate the kind of response that the state needs now! <\/p>\n\n

Consumers, on the other hand, can endure a lot and sacrifice is one of them, as long as they understand what it consists of and how long it takes. The kind of message: it’s good, don’t be scared, it’s nothing serious \u2013 it doesn’t go from kindergarten upwards anymore. <\/p>\n\n

We need a plan and realities, we need certainties, too much time has passed!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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